안녕하세요,
제가 지금 집 대출을 변동이율 1.45%로 가지고 있는데, 고정이율로 전환을 1번 할 수 있다고해서 고민중인데욥… 고정이율이 좀 오르고있는데 더 상승하기 전에 바꾸는게 나을까요?ㅠㅠ 아니면 중앙은행이 기준금리 0.25%에서 더 올릴 2023년까지 기다렸다가 그때 고정으로 바꾸는게 조금 더 나을까요?
저랑 똑같은 상황이시네요 이게 참 고민이되죠
전 이번주안에 옮기려고 하고있어요 고정으로. 기준금리를 2023 까지 홀드하겠다고 했지만 현재 bond yield 를 보면 충분히 그전에 말바꿀수도 있을것 같구요 돈을 너무 많이 풀었기때문에 인플레이션은 막을수없다고 생각해요. 요즘 집값 올라가는것도 디맨드가 올라가서 그런것도 있지만 한편으로는 돈의 가치가 자산에 비해 떨어지고 있어서 더 가파른 속도로 올라가는것이 아닌가 하는 생각이 들구요. 2023 년때까지 홀드가 된다 한들 그때 바꾸려한다면 고정금리는 이미 제법 올라가 있을것 같아요 (뇌피셜)
저저번주?금요일에 한번 일단 대대적으로 은행들 고정금리 올랐습니다. 얘기를 들어보니 5 year fixed 는 spread 자체가 얼마 없다고 하더라구요 negotiation room 이 거의 없대요 물론 당연히 posted rate 보다는 더 밑으로 받을수 있지만 확실한 floor 가 있는것 같고 그것보다 낮은건 아예 승인 올리지 말라고 했다네요 (지인 빅뱅크피셜). 4 yr Fixed 까지는아직은 조금 흥정 가능하다고 하구요. 변동은 계속 낮아지는데 (prime-1.12까지 봄) fixed 는 조금씩 올라가고 있고 은행에서도 변동금리를 더 팔려고 하는데 그 팔려는 자체가 지금 fixed 를 파는게 은행에게 불리해서 그러는게 아닌가 하는 생각이 들어요 (의심병).
몇년전 2018-2019? 에 금리 한창 올릴때 일년에 몇번씩 올리고 했었는데 그때마다 0.25 basis point (0.25) 씩 올렸었거든요 (half basis point 라고 전에 썼었는데 수정했어요 다시 보니 2017년부터 2018년까지 워낙 여러번 올려가지고 제가 착각했어요 ! 몇달에 한번씩 계속 올려서 2017 7월부터 2018년 10월까지 1% 올림) 그뜻은 두번 정도 올리면 1.45 >>1.95 (요즘 받을수있는 5년 고정금리) 바로 된다는건데 사실 이건 타이밍을 맞추기 힘든거라 저도 긴가 민가 하지만은…
어떻게보면 사실 고정이던 변동이던 지금 역대적으로 금리가 너무 낮아서 뭘 해도 돈빌린자는 돈을 버는 것이 아닌가 하는- 행복한 고민인것 같아요. 약간 이미 싼 주식을 지금 약간 종아리 (?) 정도인데 더 발바닥에서 사고 싶어서 타이밍 노리다가 놓치고 무릎에서 살것 같은 느낌도 들고 해서 저는 그냥 이번주에 갈아타기로 했습니당.
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와우 역시 모르는게 없으신 멜론님
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아 조언 정말 감사합니다… 전 2주전부터 고정이율 5일씩 계속 hold 하고 있었는데 홀드한거 그대로 그냥 바꿔야겠어요…ㅠ_ㅠ 변동 안녕~ㅎㅎㅎㅎㅎ
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오오 그러시군요 저도 정답을 알고 있는게 아니니 주위 다른 분들에게도 많이 물어보세요! 
저도 멜론님 의견에 동의합니다. 제 생각에 요즘 같이 많은게 uncertain한 시기엔 앞으로 본인의 cash flow가 얼마나 예측 가능한지도 중요한거 같아요.
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한동안 조용해서 깜빡 하고 있었는데 이제부터 계속 벌써 Fed 미팅 날짜야? 하는 날들이 기다리고 있겠네요 
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고정으로 갈아타셨나요? 저 아직 못 바꿨어요 ㅜㅜ 지금 제 변동금리가 텀이 3년 정도 남았는데 지금 은행에서 스위치를 하면 따로 페널티가 없어서 바꾸려했는데 벌써 고정금리랑 많이 벌어져서 , 최근 2번이나 올랐더라구요. 저는 갱신을 새로 해야하는거라서 rate 가 홀드가 안되가지고 놓쳤네요. 다른 타 은행도 다 알아봤는데 거의 다 비슷비슷한 floor 를 가지고 있어서 움직여도 이익이 눈에띄게 없더라구요.
지금 5년 더 높아져버린 고정금리로 락 인하는거랑 3년더 변동으로 하다가 그때 봐서 바꾸는 거랑 차이가 얼마나 날지… 다시 한번 고민이 되네요 ㅋㅋ 에구
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아 저는 이전에 홀드해논 고정 rate으로 그냥 갈아탔쑵니다 ㅠ_ㅠ 다시 하락할지 올라갈진 모를것같애서영ㅠ
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오늘 BoC 가 2023년이 아니고 2022 second half 에 금리 올릴거 같다고 얘기했습니당 또 변할수 있겠지만…
Bank of Canada hikes growth forecast, could raise rates in second half of next year
The Bank of Canada is cutting its pace of government bond buying and moving forward its timing for a potential rate hike after substantially raising growth projections for the Canadian economy.
The central bank said Wednesday that it will reduce its pace of Government of Canada bond purchases, known as quantitative easing, to $3-billion a week from $4-billion. The bank kept its overnight policy rate at 0.25 per cent, but shifted its forward guidance for a potential rate hike to the second half of 2022 from 2023.
The bank now expects the Canadian economy to grow 6.5 per cent this year, up from 4 per cent it forecast in January, and notably higher than the 5.8 per cent GDP growth projection the federal government used in its budget on Monday.
This revision is driven in large part by stronger-than-expected growth in the first quarter of 2021. GDP is expected to have grown by around 7 per cent in the first three months of the year despite a second wave of COVID-19 infections and heightened lockdown measures – a stunning 9.5 percentage points higher than the bank forecast in January.
“Lockdowns through the second wave had much less economic impact than they did through the first wave. And as restrictions were eased, the economy bounced back quickly with substantial job gains in February and March,” bank governor Tiff Macklem said at a Wednesday morning press conference.
He added, however, that “the third wave is a new setback, and we can expect some of these job gains to be reversed.”
The announcement of a $1-billion reduction in the pace of quantitative easing was widely expected. The bank has been buying government bonds in an attempt to hold down benchmark interest rates, making borrowing cheaper across the economy.
After buying billions of dollars worth of government bonds every week for the past year, the bank now owns 42 per cent of the federal government bond supply. Economists said the bank needed to “taper” its pace of buying so it did not cause problems in the bond market.
Mr. Macklem said Wednesday’s taper is the result of an improving economy, not technical concerns about market functioning. Any further adjustments to the QE program, he said, “will reflect our assessment of the strength of the recovery and its durability.”
The more significant change is around the bank’s forward guidance for a rate hike. Since last summer, the bank has said that it will keep its overnight policy rate at the “effective lower bound” of 0.25 per cent until slack in the economy is absorbed and inflation is sustainably hitting 2 per cent. It is now expecting these two conditions to be met by the second half of 2022, instead of 2023.
his change, wrote Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets in a note, “opens up a notable gap with a still-cautious Federal Reserve that is claiming that it can wait until 2024 for US rate hikes.”
“For our part, we see the Bank of Canada hiking in the final quarter of next year, but the Federal Reserve dropping its own pessimism even more dramatically, and hiking by Q3 of that year,” Mr. Shenfeld wrote.
The revised guidance does not a guarantee a rate hike in 2022. There is “nothing mechanical” about a rate decision, Mr. Macklem said, adding that there is “unusual amount of uncertainty” in the bank’s forecast.
“We know there’s going to be some destruction of [economic] capacity from this crisis, particularly in the hardest hit sectors. But at the same time, we’re seeing accelerated investments in digital technologies, and that will be adding to capacity,” he said.
In its quarterly Monetary Policy Report, published Wednesday, the bank revised its forecast for potential output growth upwards, having slashed it October.
It now expects potential output for the Canadian economy to grow by about 1.6 per cent on average over the next three years. This reflects less scarring to the labour force than expected – that is, permanent or semi-permanent damage caused by joblessness – as well as stronger expected business investment in things such as automation and digitalization.
On inflation, the bank expects consumer price index growth to come close to 3 per cent in the coming months, largely as a result of year-over-year price comparisons for gasoline. Over all, it expects 2.3 per cent inflation in 2021, 1.9 per cent in 2022 and 2.3 per cent in 2023.
Mr. Macklem indicated that the bank would let inflation run slightly above target, which he said was the result of the bank’s decision to provide forward guidance.
“The biggest risk was deflation; inflation being too low. We took out some insurance to get it back to target quickly. And the consequence of that is the forecast has a small overshoot,” he said.
Statistics Canada released its monthly inflation data Wednesday, showing CPI rose 2.2 per cent in March on a year-over-year basis.
Wednesday’s announcement had little new to say about Canada’s red hot housing market. Mr. Macklem reiterated that the bank is watching for signs of excessive exuberance, and commended the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions’ recent move to introduce stricter mortgage stress tests.
However, he maintained that the interest rate hikes were too blunt a tool to deal with froth in the housing market.
“Monetary policy is a broad macro instrument, and we really need to look at the needs of the whole economy,” he said.
“There is still at least 500,000 Canadians who are out of work, relative to the employment rate before the pandemic, and there’s considerable excess supply in the economy. Right now the economy needs our support,” he said.
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